Potential effects of overdiagnosis of cancer
| CANCER | SCREENING TEST | RANGE OF ESTIMATES OF OVERDIAGNOSIS* | COMMENTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prostate cancer8 | PSA test | 40% to 56% | Estimates from the ERSPC trial |
| Breast cancer6,26 | Mammography | 0% to > 50% | Lack of consensus on rates and most appropriate methods to obtain estimates. Issues include study design, length of follow-up, and tumour size |
| Thyroid cancer27,28 | Ultrasound, CT, MRI | 50% to 90% | Overdiagnosis linked to increased incidence of papillary thyroid cancer |
| Lung cancer21,29 | Low-dose CT | 18.5% (95% CI 5.4% to 30.6%) | Estimates from NLST |
CT—computed tomography, ERSPC—European Randomized Study on Screening for Prostate Cancer, MRI—magnetic resonance imaging, NLST—National Lung Screening Trial, PSA—prostate-specific antigen.
↵* Rates of overdiagnosis can vary because of different methodologic approaches used to calculate estimates.29