Arrhythmias and conduction disturbancesEstimates of Current and Future Incidence and Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation in the U.S. Adult Population
Section snippets
Methods
We developed a retrospective study using the medical, pharmacy, and enrollment information in the I3/Innovus health insurance claims database from January 1, 2001, through June 30, 2008. This database included more than 14 million individuals who were enrolled in large, commercial, or Medicare Advantage health plans and represented a geographically diverse 5% of the U.S. population.
Annual incidence is defined as the rate of acquiring a new AF diagnosis in the health claims data within a 1-year
Results
In 2007, 8,749 incident AF cases met our diagnostic criteria for newly diagnosed AF cases in this health insurance claims database. The age- and gender-adjusted AF incidence rate, standardized to the general U.S. population, grew from approximately 220 per 100,000 in 2002 to about 350 per 100,000 in 2007 (Figure 1), corresponding to a 9.2% annual growth rate. Accordingly, when these incidence rates are applied to the 2000 U.S. census population estimates, approximately 660,000 incident cases of
Discussion
This current study uses the largest and most geographically diverse U.S. population sample to estimate current and future AF incidence and prevalence. The projected increase in AF prevalence is not simply a result of increasing numbers of older people but also reflects the empirical fact that the incidence rate of AF is increasing. Both age-adjusted incidence and prevalence increased over the observed study period of 2001 to 2007. Assuming the 2000 U.S. Census population projections and that
Acknowledgment
We thank Irene Durham of Bristol-Myers Squibb for providing medical writing and formatting support for this article.
References (10)
- et al.
Increasing prevalence of atrial fibrillation and flutter in the United States
Am J Cardiol
(2009) - et al.
Prevalence of diagnosed atrial fibrillation in adults: national implications for rhythm management and stroke prevention: the anticoagulation and risk factors in atrial fibrillation (ATRIA) study
JAMA
(2001) - et al.
Secular trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1980 to 2000, and implications on the projections for future prevalence
Circulation
(2006) - et al.
Update on atrial fibrillation: part 1
Clin Cardiol
(2008) - US Census Bureau. The 2012 statistical abstract: population estimates and projections by age, sex, and race/ethnicity....
Cited by (954)
Advancements in gene therapy approaches for atrial fibrillation: Targeted delivery, mechanistic insights and future prospects
2024, Current Problems in CardiologyImplications of Atrial Fibrillation for Guideline-Directed Therapy in Patients With Heart Failure: JACC State-of-the-Art Review
2024, Journal of the American College of CardiologyDelayed treatment initiation of oral anticoagulants among Medicare patients with atrial fibrillation
2024, American Heart Journal Plus: Cardiology Research and PracticeAtrial fibrillation detection on reconstructed photoplethysmography signals collected from a smartwatch using a denoising autoencoder
2024, Expert Systems with Applications
This study was supported by a grant from Bristol-Myers Squibb and Pfizer Inc.
See page 1146 for disclosure information.