Epidemiology of Kawasaki disease: prevalence from national database and future trends projection by system dynamics modeling

Objective: To update the epidemiologic trend in Kawasaki disease (KD) and develop models for projection.

Study design: From our national databases 2000-2010 and previous studies, we obtained the epidemiologic data to develop and validate system dynamics models. Population model incorporated birth rate and mortality. KD model incorporated the population at risk, incidence, and risk of coronary complications.

Results: The average annual incidence in age group <5, 5-10, 10-15, and 15-20 years was 67.3, 5.75, 0.79, and 0.26 per 100,000. The KD population was 23,349 and the model estimated 20,254 patients with KD, and 25% of these patients received medical care or continued surveillance in 2010. Projection up to 2030 suggests an average of 725 new patients with KD annually and a KD population of 35,006 by 2030. In 2030, 1469 patients with KD will need medical care for coronary complications. Simulation on the model modified to US data is also effective and suggests an average of 6200 new patients annually and KD population of 161,776 by 2030, and 5664 patients will need coronary care in 2030. By 2030, there will be 1 per 700 people in Taiwan and 1 per 1600 in the US with a history of KD.

Conclusion: Simulations on our system dynamics models tailored to any epidemiologic and outcome variables and any changes with medical advance can dynamically project the futures.