Skip to main content
Log in

Ten Year Probabilities of Osteoporotic Fractures According to BMD and Diagnostic Thresholds

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Osteoporosis International Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract:

The objectives of the present study were to estimate 10 year probabilities of osteoporotic fractures in men and women according to age and bone mineral density (BMD) at the femoral neck. Risks were computed from the incidence of a first hip, distal forearm, proximal humerus and symptomatic vertebral fracture from patient records in Malmo¨, Sweden and future mortality rates for each year of age from Poisson models using the Swedish patient register and statistical year book. Fracture probability was computed using the Swedish population and cut-off values for T-scores based on the NHANES III female population. We assumed that the risk of fracture increased with decreasing BMD as assessed by meta-analysis in independent studies. The 10-year probability of any fracture was determined from the proportion of individuals fracture-free from the age of 45 years. With the exception of forearm fractures in men, 10 year probabilities increased with age and T-score. In the case of hip and spine fractures, fracture probabilities for any age with low BMD were similar between men and women. The effect of age on risk independently of BMD suggests that intervention thresholds should not be at a fixed T-score but vary according to absolute probabilities. Intervention thresholds based on hip BMD T-scores are similar between sexes.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Additional information

Received: 14 December 2000 / Accepted: 2 July 2001

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Kanis, J., Johnell, O., Oden, A. et al. Ten Year Probabilities of Osteoporotic Fractures According to BMD and Diagnostic Thresholds. Osteoporos Int 12, 989–995 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1007/s001980170006

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s001980170006

Navigation