SARS-CoV-2 and the observer effect
COVID-19 is a serious global pandemic currently at the epicentre of the world scientific community. Healthcare workers remain on high alert as the public stays glued to their “worldometer” for a daily update on the latest statistics.
To this end, epidemiology seems to be displacing traditional politics splashing media headlines and inspiring a palpable fear. The steady drum beat of data points become the metaphoric pixels in our evolving image of this historic pandemic.
Despite or honest efforts, the best available data has largely been a patchwork of testing and reporting. This has created much uncertainty and ambiguity in both the medical world as well in the public consciousness.
A similar uncertainty has been described in other areas of science, including that of quantum mechanics, within the framework of the “Observer Effect”. This idea has been used by Werner Heisenberg in addition to the “Uncertainty Principle”, in tracking the mysterious ways in which particles move in the subatomic world. Heisenberg himself would have been 17 years old when the Spanish Flu struck the northern hemisphere in 1918. The notion that by simply observing phenomenon, we can change its very outcome, may provide clarity during our current crisis.
An example of this, in the COVID-19 age, appears when mapping the presence of illness using swab focused testing. For instance, media reports have suggested that “outbreaks” have occurred at meat processing plants. Naturally, large numbers of workers at those plants were then tested, many of whom were positive, leading to the public image of a relative outbreak at these factories. This simple observation subsequently contributed to additional isolation and eventually labour and supply chain issues. Does coronavirus have an affinity for this particular industry, or did this “outbreak” emerge by the very act of increased testing for meat packagers?
Furthermore, the apparent “Sunday Effect”, on case and death reporting is emblematic of the variance in reporting. Testing is the lens through which governments and health agencies set policy. To see the weekly undulating pattern of low reporting occur predictably, in so many first world nations, highlights the human limitations in creating a clear pandemic image. The more accurate our picture becomes, the more effective our policy tools can be in combating a complex crisis causing damage to public health on multiple fronts.
There is no “worldometer” for mortality caused by lockdown policies. Deaths, including those that have occured in my practice, where lockdown may have played a role, don’t often make glamorous headlines. Sound bites from Public Health officials highlight the single health dimension of COVID-19, whereas the true multi-dimensional array of issues continue to weigh heavily on the public's health.
Both the fields of epidemiology and quantum physics rely heavily on quality observation and thoughtful statistical analysis. As the view of the physical world becomes more pixelated and clear, so too does our grainy image of the current global pandemic.
A graduate of the University of Western Ontario, Dr. Bawa has been working as a GP/Hospitalist in Bracebridge, ON for the last 22 years.
Sources
1. CBC News “Alberta Meat Processing Plant…” April 29,2020
2. Forbes “Transient Drops in Reported New Coronavirus Cases “Sunday Effect” April 27, 2020
3. CBC News “Cargill meat-processing plant …..” May 10, 2020
